In November, the demand for electricity fell slightly, and the increase of nuclear power wind power output and thermal power contribution decreased.
This week, the National Bureau of calculation and the national power bureau released the data of power generation and consumption of the whole society in November.
In terms of electricity consumption, in November, the power consumption of the whole society was 591.2 billion kwh, an increase of 4.7% year-on-year. The growth rate was 1.6 percentage points lower than that of the same period of the previous year, and 0.3 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, which was mainly affected by the higher base.
In the meantime, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the primary industry and the tertiary industry respectively declined by 5.3 and 3.8 percentage points compared with the previous month, and the growth rate of electricity consumption in the secondary industry and urban and rural residents increased by 0.2 and 1.4 percentage points compared with the previous month. Based on the restatement of the electricity consumption in November this year and the year-on-year growth rate, it is estimated that the contribution of the first, second, third and residential electricity consumption to the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society in November is about 0.83%, 55.73%, 32.78% and 10.33%.
In terms of power generation, in November, the power generation capacity of national calculation caliber generating units increased by 4.0% year on year. Between which:
In November, the hydropower generation decreased by 6.4% year-on-year, which was a negative increase in September and October, and the decrease was expanded, mainly due to the lack of precipitation and the continuation of drought; the year-on-year expansion of the production capacity brought about by the production of large capacity new units increased the nuclear power generation by 14.9% year-on-year, which was significantly higher than that of last month, or due to the reduction of maintenance schedule; in November, strong wind cooling climate appeared in many parts of the country, and the wind in November Power generation increased by 20.7% year-on-year; solar power generation completed in November increased by 2.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell by 0.3% month on month, mainly due to the Limited lighting conditions under the influence of rain and snow climate; thermal power generation increased by 4.4% year-on-year, increased by 0.5% year on year, mainly due to the increase of industrial production activities, and the added value of industries above designated size increased by 6.2% year on year in November , 0.8 percentage points higher than the same period of last year.
On a month on month basis, the growth rate of power generation in November was the same as that in October, but the growth rate of thermal power declined on a month on month basis, mainly due to the increase of nuclear power and wind power output. According to the estimation, the contribution of thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, wind power and solar power to the increase of power generation in November was 80.46%, - 24.75%, 18.60%, 25.29% and 0.99%, with a month on month variation of - 20.15, - 3.86, 111.89, 13.45 and - 0.30 percentage points.
At that time, in the context of increasing uncertainty in the microeconomic situation, the coal price lacked the basis of high-level operation. We thought that the performance of thermal power was expected to improve continuously year on year, and stressed that the decline of coal price would boost the surplus correction and market strength. At that time, we thought that the utility sector with certain counter cyclical and defensive characteristics was expected to come out of a more stable market. We recommended the thermal power sector with strong performance improvement certainty and valuation at the bottom. In terms of individual stocks, we recommended Huaneng world, Huadian world and Wanneng power, which have relatively high performance sensitivity to coal price, as well as the blessing energy shares with safety margin in valuation It is expected that the cost of coal transportation will benefit from the long-term power supply reduced by the completion of Haoji railway.
Danger tips: 1. The power supply and demand are in danger of deteriorating, and the policy is not promoted as expected; 2. The coal price is in danger of rising non seasonally, and the incoming water is still in danger of drying up.
