Chen Wei in charge: Recently, Premier Li Keqiang held the fourth plenary meeting of the State Council and pointed out that we should do a good job in the "six stability" work, promote stable addition, promote reform, adjust structure, benefit people's livelihood, prevent danger and ensure security. Today, we gather hot topics such as the issuance of special bonds by local governments and the mechanism of monetary policy transmission to conduct relevant interviews and interpretations.
On January 13, Premier Li Keqiang, in charge of the Fourth Plenary Session of the State Council, pointed out that we should speed up the issuance and utilization of special bonds of local governments, promote the construction of projects under construction and the early commencement of projects with conditions, and promote the expansion of useful investment.
It can be said that "stable investment" is an important part of the "six stability" work. From the achievements of the previous year, the implementation effect of the policy is obvious, the investment environment is further optimized, the investment confidence is constantly strengthened, and the vitality of social investment is constantly aroused. The data shows that in the first 11 months of 2019, the national fixed assets investment (excluding farmers) was 53371.8 billion yuan, an increase of 5.2% year on year, with the growth rate of the same as that from January to October 2019. By category, infrastructure investment increased by 4.0%, manufacturing investment by 2.5% and real estate development investment by 10.2% year on year.
Capital market will play a greater role in stabilizing investment
In order to continue to expand useful investment, the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on launching the special action of "capital contribution law enforcement inspection and management of capital contribution blocking points" at the end of November last year. The primary purpose is to promote the implementation of "stable capital contribution" policies and measures, and solve some problems found in the sixth supervision of the State Council.
On January 15, Tang Chuan, an expert in the expert database of the Ministry of Finance and research director of 360 financial PPP Research Center, told Securities Daily that in combination with the policy layout at the end of the previous year and the beginning of this year, the policy system design of the development and Reform Commission and other management departments this year will choose the top-down strategy, that is, to choose the side with big planning, big strategy first, technical level and basic category as supporting policies Law. In the process, we will continue to expand useful investment by putting forward hard requirements for regional development and industry development in combination with the old and new planning plans.
Wang Qing, chief micro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, said in an interview with Securities Daily that it is estimated that in 2020, the national development and Reform Commission will continue to expand useful investment in three aspects. First, it is necessary to further increase the project storage efforts, focusing on the areas of weakness, strength and structure optimization, and plan and store a number of major projects. Second, we will promote the reform of the review system, improve the review power, reduce the initial working time of the project, and promote new construction. Third, to guarantee project financing, the first measures may include urging to accelerate the issuance and use of special bonds; guiding financial institutions to guarantee the reasonable financing demand of channels; improving the issuance power of corporate bonds, expanding the issuance plan of corporate bonds, and providing supporting funds for infrastructure projects; reducing the access threshold and entry conditions for private capital to enter the scope of infrastructure, and mobilizing the enthusiasm of private capital.
On the speculation of this year's investment plan, Wang Qing indicated that it is estimated that in 2020, the special debt fund will play an "accelerator" effect of capital construction investment. In 2020, the capital market will play a greater role in stabilizing investment. On the one hand, the issuance of special bonds and supporting urban investment bonds is an important source of project capital and subsequent supporting financing, and its importance is further enhanced in the case of limited non-standard financing and limited bank credit acceptance capacity. It is estimated that the issuance of urban investment bonds will continue to increase in 2020. On the other hand, the new infrastructure is the key point of this round of infrastructure development. It can be seen that the relevant concept plate has become the focus of the capital market. It is estimated that the financing plan of equity, creditor's rights and private industrial funds for new infrastructure projects in 2020 is expected to expand significantly.
Tang Chuan indicated that, on the whole, there will be a little increase in fixed assets investment compared with the previous year, but considering the restrictions of real estate investment and excessive development faced by the policy layer, the increase range will not be too large and will show a steady and progressive trend.
PPP project landing rate is expected to rise further
In addition to the traditional methods of investment, PPP has a very obvious effect in strengthening the infrastructure and mobilizing private investment. According to the data, by the beginning of November last year, there were nearly 7000 PPP projects being promoted nationwide, with a total investment of 9 trillion yuan. Meanwhile, urban infrastructure, agriculture, forestry and water conservancy, social undertakings, transportation, ecological and environmental protection, etc., account for nearly 90% of the total number of projects and the proportion of total investment.
Wang Qing told reporters that on the one hand, PPP can bring in private capital and add the source of capital contribution for infrastructure projects; on the other hand, it can give full play to the advantages of private capital, such as keen sense of smell, high efficiency and strong innovation ability, so as to improve the construction, operation power and quality of projects. It is estimated that the landing rate of PPP projects is expected to rise further in 2020. In addition, in the context of the government's efforts to improve the business environment, it is estimated that there will be further skewness in the policy for private and foreign capital to participate in PPP projects, and financial instruments with higher matching degree may also appear. Some eco-environmental protection projects with stable cash flow return are expected to become a key point of PPP project implementation in 2020, such as sewage, garbage treatment, etc. This can also form a better dislocation and complementary effect with PPP projects such as transportation and municipal projects led by central enterprises or local state-owned enterprises in the process of driving capital contribution.
Tang Chuan pointed out that the key points of economic addition and investment at that time focused on innovative consumption forms, development of high-tech industry and construction of infrastructure and public service projects, while PPP form could not only mobilize social forces to better support the above-mentioned areas, but also its politics
