At that time, coal production was under double pressure: Domestically, coal production capacity has not fully recovered. According to the national development and Reform Commission, as of February 13, the country's coal recovery rate reached 63.8%. At that time, the return rate of production-oriented enterprises in central enterprises had exceeded 80%. Some important basic guarantee industries have a higher return rate. The return rate of petroleum and petrochemical enterprises has reached 96.8%, and that of power grid and power generation enterprises has reached 83%. In foreign countries, affected by the epidemic, coal import transactions have been impacted. Australia, the first largest coal importer, strictly carries out quarantine measures for Chinese ships, which will block the ships for 14 days in case of health problems of crew members; Indonesia, the second largest coal importer, also begins to adopt strict quarantine and blocking measures. According to media reports, since February 10, Mongolia has suspended the export of coal to China, which will continue until March 2. Under two pressures, what is the trend of coal market? Will the power industry have the possibility of power rationing due to the lack of coal supply? In response, the reporter of energy talk interviewed Niu Kehong, a senior researcher of China Energy Research Association and chief expert of strategic management of coal planning and Research Institute. Niu Kehong thought that the country's comprehensive recovery of coal production and consumption situation is estimated to be about five months, the fastest is about three months. This judgment is mainly based on the following two reasons. On the one hand, the CPC Central Committee, the State Council and the national development and Reform Commission have made strong and harmonious dispatching and actively arranged for a wide range of coal enterprises, especially the central coal enterprises and the local state-owned enterprises to return to work and production as soon as possible. Now the supply of coal shopping malls in the whole country is stable, especially the coal supply roots of some large coal-fired power plants are guaranteed. Due to the huge coal energy production in China, theoretically speaking, there will be no problem of power rationing due to the lack of coal in the market, but it is inevitable that a single local or a certain period of time has a serious problem of coal supply. On the other hand, more than 90% of China's coal market supply comes from domestic sources. China's coal dependence on foreign countries is relatively low, and the imported coal accounts for only 10% of the total coal consumption in China, with a small proportion. Only appropriate domestic adjustment and release of some coal production capacity are needed, which can fully meet the consumption demand of China's coal market. Therefore, it is short-term for foreign countries to suspend the import of coal to China, which has a very limited impact on China's shopping malls. In order to prevent the risk of large quantity and short supply of coal in the market to the greatest extent, Niu Kehong thinks that it is necessary to do a good job of "coal shortage risk" prevention in the following three aspects: First of all, we should do a good job in investigating the supply and demand information of shopping malls and studying and judging the changing trend of the supply and demand relationship, so as to provide guidance for the early distribution of coal supply and supply; Secondly, it is necessary to arrange the coal enterprises that meet the conditions to resume production, especially some large-scale coal mines with good basic conditions, to resume production as soon as possible, so as to ensure the supply of goods for the market coal consumption demand. Finally, we should strengthen the harmonious road, railway and shipping departments to ensure that coal can be produced, transported and supplied in place.
