Accelerating the arrival of parity wind turbine industry chain ushers in the turning point of performance origin: Securities Network According to the 13th five year plan for power development, wind power will implement the subsidy and decline mechanism, which will be basically equivalent to the feed in tariff of coal power by 2020. Therefore, in recent years, the country has repeatedly lowered the benchmark price of wind power grid. The opening of parity forces the construction of existing projects to speed up. With the introduction of relevant policies and the acceleration of parity, wind turbine industry chain enterprises, such as Shenli shares of upstream components, Yunda shares of wind turbine supplier, will usher in the period of performance increment. In April 2019, the Power Bureau issued the relevant requirements for wind power and photovoltaic power generation construction in 2019 for comments, and proposed to give priority to the promotion of affordable online wind power projects. Before the list of the first batch of affordable online projects in 2019 is determined, competition equipment operations that need subsidies will not be arranged temporarily. In May 2019, the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice of the national development and Reform Commission on improving the wind power on grid price policy, which changed the wind power benchmark on grid price into the guiding price, and the newly approved converged land and sea advantage power projects all determined the on grid price through competition. According to the provisions of the national development and Reform Commission, the newly approved land wind projects will be put on the Internet at a fair price from January 1, 2021. Galaxy Securities of China shows that the rush of land wind projects approved before the end of 2018 will drive the demand of the upstream parts industry of the fan industry chain to surge and the volume and price to rise. Materials show that the industrial chain of fan mainly includes three links: parts matching, whole machine manufacturing, development and operation. The parts matching mainly includes mechanical matching and electrical matching. The mechanical matching mainly includes fan tower, main shaft, hub and blade, etc. the electrical matching mainly includes special cable, special motor stator rotor core, rectifier and other equipment. Shenli Co., Ltd., an upstream component company, is mainly engaged in the development, production and sale of stator, rotor lamination and iron core of motor (including motor and generator). Through years of development, Shenli's product specifications are increasingly rich, which can be used in different types and types of motors, including marine supporting motors, diesel generators, wind turbines, traction motors, elevator traction machines, medium and high voltage motors, etc., and its service scope covers diesel power generation, rail transit, wind power generation and other special motor supporting fields. The company has established stable cooperative relations with leading domestic and foreign motor manufacturing enterprises such as Cummins, Shanghai Mitsubishi, Kohler, Vestas, abb, Siemens, general electric, gomeisa, Bombardier, Toshiba Mitsubishi, lileisenma and Audi. Shenli's financial report shows that as of September 30, 2019, the company's operating revenue is 805 million yuan, an increase of 18.74% year on year, and its net profit is 90.49 million yuan, an increase of 174.7% year on year. Industry insiders show that with the acceleration of parity and the acceleration of construction of stock projects, the company's performance is expected to usher in an increase. Another enterprise Yunda Co., Ltd. is located in the manufacturing process of the whole industrial chain. It is understood that Yunda Co., Ltd. is a traditional and old fan supplier. At present, the company's core customers include China power construction, China energy, China Resources, China energy construction, China Guanghe and other large domestic central enterprises. As the wind power projects approved before the end of 2018 need to be connected to the grid before the end of 2020, it is estimated that the planned stock of projects is more than 60GW, and the demand for each link of the wind power industry chain is strong. According to Huajin Securities Research Report, Yunda Co., Ltd. is mainly engaged in wind turbine products and is expected to confirm orders of about 3gw in 2020. China Galaxy Securities believes that the decline of subsidies will force the construction of existing projects to speed up, and the wind power sector is expected to usher in staged investment opportunities. At present, 58gw projects have been approved and not yet started in China, and 59gw projects have been announced by developers. Together, with the accelerated promotion of the distributed and large-scale base in the north and other parity projects, the project has abundant reserves, which can support the increase of domestic wind power installed capacity in the next few years. Based on the cautious assumption, it is estimated that the new installed capacity in 2020 will be close to 30GW. From the perspective of performance, the industry is in the stage of volume and price rising. The performance of spare parts enterprises will be released rapidly in 2019 and is expected to continue in 2020. Wind turbine enterprises have reached the bottom in 2019 and may rebound in 2020.
