Exit and layoff, the world's polysilicon giants OCI and wacker have had bad news for days. In contrast to the depression of foreign enterprises, China's polysilicon enterprises are speeding up the pace of production expansion, and polysilicon production costs are gradually falling. After the changes, the global polysilicon industry will usher in a new pattern, and China will become an important polysilicon production base.
South Korea, Germany and Malaysia are important polysilicon import regions in China. According to the customs data, in September 2019, the import volume from South Korea, Germany and Malaysia totaled 11011 tons, accounting for 92.7% of the total import volume in September. The main polysilicon production enterprises in these regions are Wacker and OCI.
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The above table is based on the capacity of global polysilicon enterprises in 2018 sorted out by the data of China Photovoltaic Industry Association. As of 2018, among the top 12 polysilicon enterprises in the world, the world's enterprises accounted for four seats, and wacker and OCI ranked second and third respectively.
Current situation of foreign polysilicon Enterprises: loss is normal
Foreign polysilicon enterprises have been in poor operation for a long time. In 2018, both the profit and turnover of polysilicon affairs of Wacker fell. Wacker attributed the drop in profit to the impact of the fall in polysilicon prices. In the first quarter of 2019, the winning interest rate of Wacker polysilicon business EBITDA was - 17.0%. Not long ago, Wacker announced the forecast of 2019 financial report, declaring that it would face the biggest loss in history, with a net loss of 630 million euros.
OCI, a Korean polysilicon enterprise, is facing the same difficulties. Prior to the acquisition of Malaysia's polysilicon plant, OCI's polysilicon supply in Malaysia was stable, operating at a full capacity of 27000 tons / year, with an average monthly output value of about 2200 tons. However, the production situation in Qunshan is not optimistic. According to OCI, the production cost of the two solar grade polysilicon plants is almost twice the current average price. After closing Qunshan plant, OCI's polysilicon production will be transferred to Malaysia.
Hanhua recently announced that it will close the polysilicon business in February next year, which means that after OCI, the South Korean region has lost 1.5gw of polysilicon production capacity.
Rec lost $3 million in EBITDA in the fourth quarter of 2019. The company completely stopped the production of polysilicon plant in Washington last summer and dismissed the last 100 employees, leaving only one maintenance personnel to ensure that the equipment can resume production when rec can re-enter the Chinese market. The turnaround seems to have come. According to the relevant contents of the Sino US transaction, China will increase the import of polysilicon to the United States. Rec is now assessing the possibility of restarting the operation of the FBR plant in Moxi lake.
Domestic tycoon's capital advantage boosts fierce expansion
According to the data of Photovoltaic Industry Association, in 2019, the output value of polysilicon in China was 342000 tons, an increase of 32% year on year, and the production capacity reached 462000 tons, an increase of 19.4% year on year. As for domestic polysilicon enterprises, the leading enterprises are expanding their production based on the advantage of low production cost, while the second and third tier enterprises are facing a reshuffle.
According to the calculation of relevant organizations, in 2019, the head enterprises such as Tongwei, TBEA, Daquan, Zhongneng and Dongfang hope accounted for 78% of the total polysilicon shipments in China.
In 2019, these enterprises made new progress. The first phase of Yongxiang Leshan high-purity crystalline silicon project with an annual output of 50000 tons was put into production; the new special power project with an annual output of 36000 tons of polysilicon was put into production in May; Xinjiang Dongfang expects that the project with an annual output of 120000 tons of polysilicon (the first phase of 30000 tons) will complete the whole process in December, and the commissioning of the project will be successful once, entering the stage of full production and operation; Daquan new power signed with the crystal division in 2019 After signing the agreement of 13500 tons of polysilicon, we signed the supply agreement with Jingke and Longji. From 2020 to 2022, the total order supply will reach 140400 tons. In the first half of 2019, the first phase of poly-gcl's 60000 tons of polysilicon project in Xinjiang will reach production on schedule.
In terms of production cost, according to the third quarter financial report of new special power, the capacity of the new production project reaches 3000 tons / month, and the cost is expected to be less than 50000 yuan / ton after full production.
Daquan new power pointed out in the second quarter of 2019 that its polysilicon production cost is 7.42 USD / kg ~ 8.12 USD / kg.
Tongwei recently released the production expansion plan. In 2020-2022, Tongwei's silicon material capacity will be expanded to 8.5, 11.5-15, 15-22 and 22-29000 tons respectively. In terms of cost, it is estimated that the production cost shall be controlled at 30000-40000 yuan / ton and the cash cost shall be controlled at 20000-30000 yuan / ton.
In conclusion, the production capacity of the five polysilicon enterprises in the table above exceeds 420000 tons. According to the research of new electric industry, it is predicted that the proportion of the shipment volume of these enterprises will reach 90% in 2020, and the market concentration will be further enhanced.
