In order to improve the early warning target of coal and electricity, both reliability and economy should be considered in power planning. The early warning of coal power planning and construction risk of Power Bureau in 2023 shows that the capacity utilization rate of 7 areas (Dongsan, Mengdong, Shandong, Xinjiang and Fujian) has improved compared with the early warning in 2022, but the economy of Jilin and Liaoning has become worse, and the economy of Shandong / Anhui / Fujian has improved. Xie Guoxing, former Commissioner of Zhejiang energy regulatory office, proposed the 14th five year plan for electric power (Polaris power): 1. At present, the practical capacity utilization rate of coal-fired power generation units in China is only 59%, one of the reasons is that the power planning or power dispatching should be carried out according to the old concept and the old professional standard rules, and the relevant standards should be revised as soon as possible; 2 UHV power transmission imports renewable power from northwest and North China to East China and other coastal areas. Its power loss and transmission cost are very high, and it has gradually lost the price advantage. It is proposed to study and adjust the planning idea of "power transmission from west to East"; 3. The utilization rate of power grid equipment capacity is only 30-40%, and the imbalance between reliability and economy is serious. The coupling scale is now large enough, and the redundancy is also high. Perhaps it is more important to improve the efficiency than to invest in the backbone. 1. Chen Zheng, Power Research Institute of China Southern Power Grid (China Power Daily quoted by Polaris power grid): it is neither necessary nor feasible to establish a fully and strongly coupled integrated national consistent power market. PJM in the United States is now one of the world's largest experienced markets, with an installed capacity of about 180 million kilowatts and a maximum load of about 165 million kilowatts. However, China's installed capacity is about 1.9 billion kilowatts and the maximum load is more than 1.4 billion kilowatts. However, the market scale is too large, which will bring the dimension disaster of optimal accounting, and it is difficult to achieve uniform optimization and clearing, and the construction of dispatching system is very difficult. It is proposed that several integrated regional power markets be weakly coupled into the national uniform market. From the data point of view, we think that the coupling scale of China's electric power is now large enough, and the redundancy is very high (that is, the redundancy is large). Perhaps it is more important to improve the efficiency rather than invest in the backbone network on a large scale. 2. Huawei believes that in 2025, the optical storage symbiosis ratio of photovoltaic power stations will reach more than 30%, and 80% of household systems will be connected to VPP (virtual power station) to participate in power system dispatching and Trading (Polaris solar photovoltaic network). We believe that strong regional integration will become a trend, light storage symbiosis in the future may impact the market. With the acceleration of UHV transmission, provinces are facing different supply and demand patterns. State Grid has accelerated the early progress of 7 key projects (Xinhua network), such as Nanyang Jingmen Changsha, Nanchang Changsha, Jingmen Wuhan, Zhumadian Wuhan, Wuhan Nanchang; Baihetan Jiangsu, Baihetan Zhejiang). We estimate that the utilization efficiency of UHVDC in the future is expected to increase, or more than 4000 hours. In 2019, 1.06 trillion kwh of electricity was sold among provinces in China, with a year-on-year increase of + 8.2%. We think provinces with new UHV channels will benefit more: Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Qinghai, Shaanxi, Shanxi and Gansu. State Grid Power Research Institute estimates that in 2020, the newly installed capacity in the operation area of the State Grid will be 110 million kilowatts (+ 7%), including 37 million kilowatts of thermal power (+ 3.9%), 41 million kilowatts of wind power (+ 28%), and 26 million kilowatts of solar energy (+ 17%), which is serious in Central China, tight in North China, balanced in Southwest China, surplus in East China and province Hebei, Hubei, Hunan and Jiangxi power grids are serious (Polaris power). The daily consumption is still low affected by the epidemic situation, the upstream and downstream production is resumed, and the coal price slightly falls. This week (February 24-28), the upstream and downstream production resumed synchronously, and the daily consumption of the six major power plants increased by 2.3% to 430000 tons compared with last week, but it was still low year on year. The inventory of power plants increased by 3.4% compared with the same period last year, and QinGang power terminal coal (q5500) decreased by 5 yuan / ton to 566 yuan / ton compared with last week. State Power Bureau: by 2.24, the country's coal production capacity recovery rate was 77.7%, with a daily output of 8.39 million tons, and the output increased rapidly. Lu Junling, director of the coal department, said that the adverse effects of the epidemic on coal production had been basically eliminated (Xinhua. Com). The overall recovery rate of Guangdong enterprises is over 80%, and the power consumption is steadily increasing. We estimate that the demand and supply will gradually recover in the next few weeks, and the downstream or catch-up factors will be met, and the power coal price will be strong in the short term.
