With the situation of epidemic prevention and control continuing to improve, the return rate of power battery enterprises gradually increased. The reporter learned that up to now, the enterprises in the power battery industry chain, such as Ningde era, BYD, GuoXuan hi tech, Lishen battery, Yiwei lithium energy, etc., have resumed work and the production is gradually on the right track.
"It should be noted that resumption does not mean resumption of production. Many power battery enterprises have returned to work, but their production capacity is not full. " Li Jian, a professor at Central South University, pointed out that at present, the professional capacity of power battery is mostly restored, and it will take a long time to fully resume production and reach production capacity.
Li Jian believes novel coronavirus pneumonia is a major impact on power battery occupation, and the superposition of subsidies and slump has led to shrinking sales of new energy vehicles.
In fact, recently, wood Mackenzie, an energy consulting agency, has lowered the expectation of China's new battery capacity in 2020 from 261gwh to 237 GWH, which is expected to reduce by about 10%.
Wood Mackenzie's guess makes sense. According to the data released by the power battery branch, in January, the installed capacity of the top ten power battery enterprises showed different ups and downs. During this period, the installed capacity of Ningde was 1328.24mwh, down 35.95% year-on-year, and that of BYD was 251.08mwh, down 81.70% year-on-year. Li suggested that the general decline of installed capacity will affect the new capacity planning of battery enterprises.
Trigger industrial chain chain reaction
"The tightening of the market and the stoppage of the strike have led to a sharp decrease in the income of power battery enterprises, but it is difficult to avoid rigid payments such as rent, salary, interest, etc. the pressure on the cash flow of enterprises has doubled, and some enterprises with originally weak strength will be in a more difficult situation." Li Jian is frank.
A person in charge of a domestic power battery enterprise who didn't want to be named said that the postponement of resumption of work has affected the supply of the enterprise. Because of the epidemic, foreign manufacturers are more cautious in importing parts from China. Some vehicle enterprises are looking for alternative suppliers, and subsequent uncertainty will be added.
According to the statistical analysis of the power battery branch, in 2019, there are 79 new energy car supporting power lithium-ion battery enterprises in China, a decrease of 13 compared with 2018; under the influence of the epidemic, in 2020, the power battery enterprises may be further reduced, and the whole profession will speed up the reshuffle.
Li Jian indicated that the novel coronavirus pneumonia caused a weak demand for power batteries, and that the weaker SMEs could face the risk of closure. The head enterprises had strong technological accumulation, capital support and rapid market reaction, and the impact was limited.
The reporter noted that on February 26, Ningde's issued a non-public offering plan, which is to raise no more than 20 billion yuan for the construction, research and development of power battery and energy storage battery projects and to make up for the working capital. The 20 billion yuan raised will be used in five major projects, and the annual capacity of lithium-ion batteries will be increased by 52gwh after these projects are completed.
As a large power battery manufacturing country, the domestic power battery production is limited, which also affects the supply of parts and components in low-class fields such as foreign vehicles. Warkmar dunnar, chief executive of Bosch, said recently that the epidemic may affect its global supply chain, which is heavily dependent on China.
It is worth mentioning that in the list of global lithium-ion power battery shipments in 2019 released by SNE research, a Korean market research company, the top 10 enterprises have 5 in China, while in 2018, Chinese enterprises have 7 seats. Industry insiders show that on the one hand, the growth of domestic power battery installed capacity slows down, and even some of the top enterprises show negative growth, on the other hand, the installed capacity of overseas battery enterprises grows rapidly, resulting in some domestic top enterprises being squeezed out of the top ten camps.
Long term trend remains optimistic
"The new energy car market largely depends on the policy support. The national plan for the development of new energy industry will not be changed. In 2020, the new energy car policy is still relatively active, which is also the guarantee for the fundamental stability of power battery demand. " Li Jian said.
Recently, Wang Bin, deputy director general of the market operation Department of the Ministry of Commerce, said that the Ministry of Commerce will study and issue policies and measures to further stabilize car consumption with relevant departments to reduce the impact of the epidemic on car consumption; encourage local governments to introduce measures to promote new energy car consumption, add traditional car purchase restriction indicators and launch car replacement. Wang Bin pointed out that the impact of the epidemic on the car industry is staged. With the control of the epidemic and the gradual recovery of production days, the compensatory consumption demand for cars will be significantly increased in the later stage.
On February 24, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the guidance on orderly promoting the resumption of production of industrial communication enterprises, proposing to promote the resumption of production of key professional enterprises, which includes the "lithium ion battery industry", which is undoubtedly a great good news.
In addition, Li Jian pointed out that the overall technical level of China's power battery industry has leaped to the forefront of the international market, and the awareness of domestic enterprises in the international market is increasing. Small and medium-sized power battery enterprises should also go abroad and actively expand the international market, such as Vietnam, India, Pakistan, etc. to expand our country or region, and carry out the production capacity layout to meet the needs of the local market. On the one hand, it can release the pressure of domestic competition, on the other hand, it can reach the goal of slack danger and comprehensive development.
